By Patricia L Johnson
The first thing I heard from the media today about the most recent jobs report is the word only. Only 142,000 jobs were created in August 2014. They failed to notice our latest job creation report indicating 142,000 jobs were created puts us over the 10 million mark as far as how many jobs have been created in the private sector over the past four and a half years.
According to the BLS this makes the 54th consecutive month of positive job growth for the United States, which also happens to be the longest period in U.S. history of positive job growth. Maybe the media thinks it’s only 142,000, but it’s an excellent record for this country as well as for this Administration.
While the Employment Situation Report was issued September 5, 2014 for August, the ADP National Employment Report for August was issued yesterday, September 4, 2014. This report indicated there were a total of 204,000 jobs added to the private sector in August.
The difference between the two reports is ADP information is obtained from actual non-farm, private sector, payroll data transactions, seasonally adjusted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Report data is obtained from data supplied via survey to the government by the various companies/individuals.
The ADP National Employment Report began in 2006 and using new methodology, which was designed for ADP by Moody’s Analytics, has brought them within 96 percent of revised BLS figures, so they have a little more work to do before their reports can be considered ‘gospel’.
If you’re familiar with the monthly jobs report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, you already know that the 142,000 is a preliminary number and will be changed several times over the next few months as more and more late reports come in from the various businesses.
The midterm elections are only 60 days away so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if some businesses were intentionally turning in late survey data to make it appear as if the job market is magically disappearing before our very eyes.
With that thought in mind, I prepared a little chart comparing ADP data to BLS data and if nothing else it’s an interesting comparison. Although the two lines are not exact duplicates, one does more or less eventually follow the other with its ups and downs. What is most interesting is on a year to year comparison, there is only a difference of 3,000 jobs between the two sources which is pretty close. How close it would be if actual numbers were used rather than numbers rounded to thousands is difficult to say.
Although the month of August only brought about 142,000 new jobs, it was enough to lower the U.S. unemployment rate from 7.2 percent in August of 2013 to 6.1 percent in August of 2014, which is great news!
If we’re looking this good now, what are we going to look like when the minimum wage gets raised?
© 2014 Patricia L Johnson
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